Research #
5th Circuit composition shifted more than you'd think, 2020-2024
Between 2020 and 2024, the Fifth Circuit went from a 12-5 Republican-appointee majority to a 12-5 Republican-appointee majority. Same numbers, different people — four retirements and four new appointments in the span. That surface-level stability hides a real shift: the new appointees are a decade younger on average, and two of the retirees were the panel’s swingier votes.
Why this matters for practitioners: panel-draw strategy doesn’t age as well as it used to. Models trained on 2018-era appointee behavior will mispredict 2026 panels. We’re rebuilding our judge-profile baselines on opinions from 2023 forward.